Monday's bond market has opened in positive territory despite stronger than expected economic news. Helping boost bond prices this morning are sizable stock losses with the Dow down 132 points and the Nasdaq down 27 points. The bond market is currently up 6/32, but we will likely still see an increase in this morning's mortgage rates of approximately .125 of a discount point due to weakness late Friday.

The first data of the week was the Institute for Supply Management's (ISM) manufacturing index. It revealed a reading of 49.6 that was over a full point higher than forecasts. This means that manufacturers were more optimistic about business conditions than analysts had thought. That is considered negative news for bonds because strengthening manufacturing activity usually leads to strong overall economic activity and raises inflation concerns. Fortunately, traders seem to be more interested in today's stock weakness than this data.

Tomorrow's only relevant news is the Commerce Department's release of April's Factory Orders data. This manufacturing sector report is similar to last week's Durable Goods Orders release, but also includes orders for non-durable goods. It can cause some movement in the financial markets if it varies from forecasts by a wide margin, but it isn't expected to cause much change in rates this month. Current forecasts are expecting to see a decline in orders of 0.1%.

Overall, look for Friday to be the most important day of the remaining week with the release of May's Employment figures. This morning's data failed to drive bond prices or mortgage rates in any direction, but Friday's data most likely will. If we see stronger than expected readings Friday, I expect to see mortgage rates close the week higher than this morning's levels.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing w as taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now... This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.

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Below is the monthly activity report for Maricopa county for Sales.

It is broken down by area, if you are unsure where your home is located the area, feel free to email us with your address and we  will be happy to email you back with the area and the related information.

Home sales are picking up.

 

Monthly Activity Report: 5-2008

Property Type: Residential

Thursday's bond market has opened down sharply following early stock gains and stronger than expected economic data. The stock markets are rallying during early trading with the Dow up 141 points and the Nasdaq up 24 points. The bond market is currently down 20/32, which will push this morning's mortgage rates higher by approximately .250 - .375 of a discount point. Limiting this morning's increase in rates was a strong showing during afternoon trading yesterday. However, this morning's losses erased those gains and then some.

Helping contribute to yesterday's late rally was the afternoon release of the Fed Beige Book. It showed overall weak economic growth in most regions of the country. It noted that food and energy prices were rising quickly and could help prevent growth in the economy. The downside of that is rising fuel prices can also lead to inflation in other parts of the economy and make it to the consumer level. But, this news, coupled with an eventual loss of over 200 points in the Dow, led to a rally in mortgage-related bonds. Unfortunately, the gains have been wiped out this morning.

This morning's big news was the release of May's Retail Sales data that showed a 1.0% rise in sales at retail establishments. This was nearly twice the increase that was forecasted and shows that spending was much stronger than expected during the month. The footnote to this reading though is that this was the month that most of the economic stimulus checks went out and their impact is being debated. But another number in the report that also was negative for bonds was an upward revision to April's sales. They were previously announced as a decline of 0.2%, but today's report said they actually rose 0.4%. That indicates that sales were stronger than many had thought over the past two months.

Also worth noting was a larger than expected number of new unemployment claims filed last week. The Labor Depar tment reported that 384,000 new claims for benefits were filed last week, exceeding forecasts and getting very close to the important benchmark of 400,000. That level is another recessionary sign and could lead to further concerns about the economy that may benefit bonds.

There are two reports scheduled for release tomorrow. The first and more important of the two is May's Consumer Price Index (CPI) that measures inflationary pressures at the consumer level of the economy. This is one of the most important reports we see each month. There are two readings of this index, the overall and the core data. The core data is considered to be the more important of the two because it excludes more volatile food and energy prices. A large increase could raise fear in the bond market that inflation is a threat. This would not be good news for bond prices or mortgage rates since inflation erodes the value of a bond's future fixed interest payments. Rising inflation causes inv estors to sell bonds, driving prices lower and mortgage rates higher. Analysts are expecting to see an increase of 0.5% in the overall index and a 0.2% rise in the core data.

The last report of the week is June's preliminary reading to the University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment. This index measures consumer willingness to spend and usually has a moderate impact on the financial markets. It is expected to show a reading of 59.5. A larger then expected decline in consumer confidence would be considered good news for bonds, however, the CPI report is much more likely to have a bigger impact on the markets than this one will.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Lock if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now... This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.

Friday's bond market has opened in positive territory following the release of interesting employment numbers. The stock markets are reacting negatively to the news with the Dow down 247 points and the Nasdaq down 43 points. The bond market is currently up 17/32, but we will likely see only a .125 of a discount point improvement in this morning's mortgage rates due to weakness in bonds late yesterday.

The Labor Department gave us this week's most important data early this morning with the release of May's Employment numbers. The biggest surprise of the data was a 0.5% jump in the unemployment rate to bring it to 5.5%. This was the largest monthly increase in approximately 22 years, indicating that the employment sector is much weaker than thought. This is very good news for the bond market.

Also considered a positive for bonds was the loss of 49,000 payrolls. Analysts were expecting to see a loss of 60,000 jobs, but this was the fifth consecuti ve monthly decline in payrolls. That note seems to be more important than the 11,000 job variance between the actual and forecasted numbers.

In a bit of negative news, average hourly earnings rose 0.3% during the month, exceeding forecasts of a 0.2% rise. This means that wages rose more than expected, which raises concerns about wage-inflation that can easily spread to other sectors of the economy. Fortunately, the headline unemployment number seems to be the focus of trading this morning.

Next week brings us the release of a couple of important pieces of data. There is no relevant news scheduled for release Monday. Most of the important data will be posted the latter part of the week. Look for more details on next week's events in Sunday's weekly preview.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Lock i f my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Lock if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now... This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.

Thursday's bond market has opened in negative territory again as investors prepare for tomorrow's big news. Also hurting bonds this morning are sizable stock gains that has the Dow up 128 points and the Nasdaq up 30 points. The bond market is currently down 8/32, which with yesterday's late sell-off, will push this morning's mortgage higher by approximately .500 of a discount point compared to yesterday's morning rates.

The only data posted this morning was last week's unemployment claims. The Labor Department said that 357,000 new claims for benefits were filed last week. This was lower than the 372,000 that was expected and created some concern in the bond market that tomorrow's monthly report may reveal stronger than expected numbers.

The Labor Department will post May's Employment data early tomorrow morning. This report gives us key employment readings such as the U.S. unemployment rate and the number of jobs added or lost during the month. Analysts are expecting to see the unemployment rate climb to 5.1% with approximately a loss of 60,000 jobs during the month. A higher than expected increase in the unemployment rate and a larger drop in payrolls would be great news for the bond market. It would probably create a sizable rally in bonds, leading to lower mortgage rates tomorrow.

But, if we see stronger than expected numbers in tomorrow's results, we will likely see bonds tumble and mortgage rates spike higher. There is little doubt that tomorrow's news will create volatility in the markets and quite possibly mortgage pricing. Accordingly, proceed with caution if still floating an interest rate.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Lock if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now ... This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.

Tuesday's bond market has opened in negative territory following the release of stronger than expected economic data and early stock gains. The stock markets are in positive territory with the Dow up 25 points and the Nasdaq up 20 points. The bond market is currently down 13/32, but we likely will not see much change in this morning's mortgage rates due to strength in bonds late yesterday.

The Commerce Department reported late this morning that April's Factory Orders rose 1.1%. This greatly exceeded forecasts of a 0.1% decline and indicated that the manufacturing sector was stronger than thought. This is considered to be negative news for bonds and mortgage rates because a growing manufacturing sector is a strong sign of overall economic growth.

Tomorrow morning brings us the release of two pieces of economic data for the markets to digest. The first is the revised 1st Quarter Productivity and Costs reading. This index measures employee output a nd employer costs for wages and benefits. It is considered to be a measurement of wage inflation. It is believed that the economy can grow with low inflationary pressures when productivity is high, so this type of data can influence trading and mortgage rates. Last month's preliminary reading revealed a 2.2% rate, but I don't think this revision will have much of an impact on the bond market or mortgage pricing unless it varies greatly from its forecasted reading of 2.5%.

The second report of the day may have a significant impact on the markets or be a non-factor depending on its result. The Institute for Supply Management will release its services index late Wednesday morning. It is expected to show a reading of 51.0, with the same principals as Monday's manufacturing index. If this reading varies greatly from forecasts, we may see volatility in the markets and mortgage rates. However, if its results are in the general area of expectations, it will likely have n o influence on the markets and mortgage pricing.

There is no relevant data scheduled for release Thursday except weekly unemployment figures. However, market participants will be preparing for Friday's key Employment report for the month of May. This report will likely lead to plenty of volatility in the markets even if its results vary slightly from forecasts.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Lock if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now... This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.