This holiday-shortened week brings us the release of an abundance of economic reports for the markets to digest. There are seven reports on the calendar with several being considered to be of high importance to the bond market and mortgage rates. With multiple moderately or highly important reports due out more than one day this week, we will likely see a fair amount of movement in mortgage rates day to day.

October's Existing Home Sales data will be posted late this morning. This report, along with Wednesday's New Home Sales data are the least important reports of the week. They give us a measurement of housing sector strength and mortgage credit demand, but the bond market generally does not rely heavily on their results.

The first important data comes early tomorrow morning brings us the first revision to the 3rd Quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) reading. The GDP revision is expected to show a downward revision from last month's preliminary r eading of -0.3%. Current forecasts call for a reading of approximately -0.6%, meaning that there was less economic growth during the third quarter than previously thought. This would be good news for the bond market and mortgage rates.

Late tomorrow morning, November's Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) will be posted. The Conference Board will release the CCI for the month of November at 10:00 AM ET, giving us a measurement of consumer willingness to spend. If consumer confidence is rising, analysts believe that consumers are more apt to make larger purchases, essentially fueling economic growth. This raises inflation concerns and usually pushes mortgage rates higher. Analysts are expecting a small increase from last month's 38.0 reading to somewhere around 39.5. A weaker than expected reading should be good news for mortgage rates, but a stronger than expected reading could push mortgage rates higher Tuesday.

Monday's bond market has opened in positive territory following another round of stock weakness that has bonds looking more attractive to investors. The stock markets are continuing Friday's selling with the Dow currently down 162 points and the Nasdaq down 30 points. The bond market is currently up 11/32, which should improve this morning's mortgage rates by approximately .125 - .250 of a discount point.

Today's Industrial Production report revealed a much larger than expected increase in manufacturer output. The 1.3% increase greatly exceeded analysts' forecasts of a 0.1% decline in output, meaning that U.S. factories, mines and utilities were busier than many had thought. This is considered to be negative news for bonds and mortgage rates.

The rest of the week brings us the release of four more monthly reports for the markets to digest along with the minutes from the last FOMC meeting. The first of the week's two key inflation readings will be posted early tomorrow morning when October's Producer Price Index (PPI) is released. The PPI measures inflationary pressures at the producer level of the economy. There are two portions of the index that are used- the overall reading and the core data reading. The core data is the more important of the two because it excludes more volatile food and energy prices.

If the core data reveals stronger than expected readings, indicating that inflationary pressures are rising, the bond market will probably react negatively and should drive mortgage rates higher. If we see in-line or weaker than expected numbers, mortgage rates should fall. Current forecasts are calling for a decline of 1.8% in the overall reading and a 0.1% increase in the core reading.

Overall, look for tomorrow or Wednesday to be the most important day of the week with the PPI and CPI reports scheduled for release those days. They are the two most important releases of the week and ca n individually lead to large swings in the markets and mortgage rates. The FOMC minutes may also heavily influence trading and deserve to be watched also. I think this will be a fairly active week for mortgage rates, so please maintain regular contact with your mortgage professional.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now... This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.

This week brings us the release of only three relevant economic reports with only one of them being considered highly important. It is a holiday shortened week with the bond market closing early Monday and remaining closed Tuesday in observance of the Veterans Day holiday.

The first data of the week is September's Goods and Services Trade Balance report Thursday morning. It helps us measure the size of the U.S. trade deficit, but usually is not a major influence on bond trading or mortgage pricing. It does affect the value of the U.S. dollar, which makes U.S. securities more attractive to international investors when the dollar is strong. This is because the securities' proceeds are worth more when sold and converted to the investor's domestic currency. However, its results will not likely directly lead to changes in mortgage rates.

There are two reports scheduled for release Friday. October's Retail Sales report is the first. This report is very important to the financial markets because it measures consumer spending. Since consumer spending makes up two-thirds of the U.S. economy, any related data is watched closely. If this report reveals weaker than expected sales, the bond market should thrive and mortgage rates will fall. Current forecasts are calling for a drop in sales of approximately 1.2%.

The last of the week's three reports comes late Friday morning when November's preliminary reading of the University of Michigan's Index of Consumer Sentiment will be released. This index measures consumer confidence, which gives us an indication of consumer willingness to spend. It is expected to show a reading of 57.0, down from October's final reading of 57.6.

There are 10-year Note and 30-year Bond auctions this week, Wednesday and Thursday respectively. Strong or very weak results from these sales could affect the momentum in the bond market and lead to afternoon changes in mortgage rates. It i s common to see pressure in bonds ahead of these sales, but as long as interest from investors is decent we should see those pre-sale losses recovered during afternoon trading of the sale days.

Overall, look for a fairly quiet week in the mortgage market compared to previous weeks unless something totally unexpected transpires. As long as the stock markets remain fairly calm, I am expecting to see mortgage rates follow suit.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now... This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.

Friday's bond market has opened in negative territory despite the release of a much weaker than expected Employment report. The stock markets are showing gains after a couple of sizable down days this week. The Dow is currently up 84 points while the Nasdaq has gained 17 points. The bond market is currently down 19/32, but we should still see an improvement in this morning's mortgage rates of approximately .250 of a discount due to a strong rally in bonds late yesterday. This morning's losses are taking back some of yesterday's late gains, but mortgage rates are still lower than yesterday's morning rates.

The Labor Department gave us some surprising readings this morning, saying that the U.S. unemployment rate jumped from 6.1% in September to 6.5% in October. They were expected to show a 6.3% unemployment rate. This was the highest rate of unemployment since March 1994.

The number of payrolls added or lost during the month also opened some eye s. The economy lost 240,000 jobs last month, which was worse than the 200,000 that was forecasted. But equally as bad was a large revision to September's payrolls. What was previously announced as a loss of 159,000 jobs in September is now being estimated at 284,000. This was the 10th consecutive monthly drop in payrolls and brings the yearly total to 1.2 million jobs lost and the first time we have seen 1 million jobs lost since 2001.

Today's report gives us little to be optimistic about in regards to the employment sector. It is becoming more and more clear to many analysts that the economy is actually in a recession despite the lack of an official announcement or other benchmark indicators. What is equally concerning is that many think the problems are going to get worse before better. This could be good news for bonds and mortgage shoppers, but the crazy volatility we have seen in the markets recently makes it very difficult to follow historical patter ns or make realistic predictions. There is little doubt that we will see more volatility in the coming weeks.

Next week is light in terms of the number of relevant economic reports scheduled for release. We will get some important data late next week, but the first part of the week there is nothing scheduled for release to be concerned with. This make sit very likely that the stock markets will be the biggest influence on bonds and mortgage rates the first couple of days of the week. But look for more details on next week's event sin Sunday's weekly preview.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now... This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion an d cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.

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Wednesday's bond market has opened in positive territory, continuing yesterday's late rally. The stock markets are well into negative ground this morning with the Dow down 171 points and the Nasdaq down 37 points. The bond market is currently up 3/32, but due significant strength in bonds late yesterday, we will likely see an improvement of approximately .500 - .625 in today's mortgage rates.

There is no important data scheduled for release today. Tomorrow's sole important report is the 3rd Quarter Productivity reading. The productivity index is expected to show a level of worker productivity during the third quarter much lower than last quarter's final reading of 4.3%. Analysts have forecasted a 1.0 rise in worker output. A larger increase would be good news for the bond market because high levels of productivity helps the economy to expand without inflationary pressures being a concern.

We also will get weekly unemployment figures from the Lab or Department early tomorrow morning. It is expected to show that new claims for benefits fell slightly to 476,000 last week. While this data usually does not have much of an impact on the markets because it tracks only a week's worth of claims, tomorrow's release may be a little more influential than usual. This is because the release will cover the last full week of October and with Friday's monthly report coming out for the entire month, traders will be looking for any significant change in claims that may alter their estimates for the monthly report.

Friday's Employment report is expected to show that the economy lost 200,000 jobs, that unemployment rate moved from 6.1% to 6.3% and that average earnings rose 0.2% during the month. The large drop in payrolls and 0.2% jump in the unemployment rate are numbers of concern to the markets, therefore, I don't believe that we will need to see weaker than expected results to see bonds improve and mortgage rates move lower. However, stronger than forecasted readings could give back this morning's improvements to rates since the markets are expecting weak numbers.

I am expecting to see more volatility in bonds and mortgage rates in the days ahead. Accordingly, it may be a good time to lock if closing in the immediate future. Regardless though, I strongly recommend maintaining contact with your mortgage professional over the next week or so.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now... This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.

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