Friday's bond market has opened on positive territory following the release of weaker than expected employment numbers. The stock markets are showing another weak morning with the Dow down 105 points and the Nasdaq down 27 points. The bond market is currently up 10/32, which should improve this morning's mortgage rates by another .250 of a discount point.

The Labor Department posted August's Employment figures this morning, saying that the unemployment rate spiked to a five year high of 6.1% when it was expected to remain at 5.7%. They also reported that the economy lost 84,000 jobs last month, exceeding the forecasted decline of 75,000. Both of these numbers are favorable to bonds and mortgage rates because they indicate a weakening employment sector.

A bit of negative news for bonds was the average hourly earnings readings that rose 0.4%. This was 0.1% higher than was expected, but not enough of a concern to prevent stocks from falling and bo nd prices from rising.

Next week is fairly light in terms of the number of economic reports scheduled for release. However, two of the reports on the calendar are considered to be very important to the markets and mortgage rates. There is no relevant data scheduled for release Monday or Tuesday, but look for more details on next week's event sin Sunday's weekly preview.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now... This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.

Friday's bond market has opened in positive territory following a negative open in stocks and weaker than expected economic news. The markets are reacting more to news of the possible failure of the Fed bailout than today's economic data. The stock markets are showing losses with the Dow down 32 points and the Nasdaq down 16 points. The bond market is currently up 11/32, but I don't believe we will see much of a change in this morning's mortgager rates.

Neither of today's economic releases are considered to be of high importance, but both gave us results that were favorable to bonds. The first was the final revision to the 2nd Quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) that showed a revised rate of growth of 2.8%. This was a sizable downward revision to the previous estimate of a 3.3% annual rate and lower than analysts had expected for this revision. This means that the economy grew at a slower rate than many had thought during the 2nd quarter of the year.

The second report of the day and the final report of the week was the revised reading of the University of Michigan's Index of Consumer Sentiment. The preliminary reading that was released earlier this month revealed a 73.1 reading, but today's update showed a 70.3 reading. This was also lower than forecasts and hints that consumers are less optimistic about their own financial situations than thought, which usually means they are less likely to make large purchases in the near future.

Next week is packed with economic news for the markets to digest. There is relevant data scheduled for release every day of the week, beginning with August's Personal Income and Spending data Monday morning. Look for details on next week's events in Sunday's weekly preview.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now... This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.

Monday's bond market has opened up sharply following a steep sell-off in stocks during early trading. The stock markets are reacting to news that Lehman Brothers filed for bankruptcy and other related financial sector news. This has pushed the Dow lower by 250 points and the Nasdaq down 33 points. The bond market is currently up 48/32, which should improve this morning's mortgage rates by approximately .500 of a discount point.

The news the Lehman was unable to find buyers for its businesses and filed for bankruptcy protection has significantly raised concerns that the financial sector of the market is nowhere near stabilizing and has many fearing that more collapses may be coming in the near future. There are concerns about other banks and financial services companies on the verge of collapse that could create turmoil in international markets also. The benefactor to this news and concern is the bond market as investors seek safe-haven from the volatili ty. Whether this spike in bond prices will hold is unknown at this time, but what is a safe bet is that more news like this weekend's reports could make mortgage-related bonds much more attractive to investors and may lead to a downward trend in mortgage rates.

Also contributing to this morning's bond gains was a much larger decline in industrial production than analysts had expected. This morning's release of August's Industrial Production report revealed a 1.1% decline in factory output. This was much weaker than analysts' forecasts of a 0.3% decline and indicates that the manufacturing sector was weaker than thought in August. This is good news for bonds and mortgage rates because slowing economic activity eases inflation concerns.

Tomorrow morning brings us the release of August's Consumer Price Index (CPI). This is one of the most important reports we see each and every month. It is considered to be a key indicator of inflation at the consumer le vel of the economy. There are two readings in the report- the overall index and the core data reading. Current forecasts are calling for 0.1% decline in the overall reading and a 0.2% rise in the core data reading. A larger increase in the core data would likely lead to higher mortgage rates tomorrow, while a smaller increase would be good news.

The FOMC meeting will adjourn at 2:15 PM tomorrow. There is little debate about a possible change to key short-term interest rates at this meeting. The overwhelming consensus is that there will be no change to rates at this meeting. However, the post-meeting statement could very well lead to volatility during afternoon trading as investors dissect it in an effort to find the Fed's expected next move. The wild card is how the markets react to the statement. If we see significant weakness in stocks, the bond market may benefit as a safe-haven from the volatility. This could lead to lower mortgage rates tomorrow afternoon and Wednesday morning.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now... This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.

Thursday's bond market has bounced around in the wake of extremely volatile stock trading this morning. The stock markets are showing losses at the moment, but are currently significantly higher than earlier lows. The Dow is now standing down 19 points after falling as much as 170 points earlier. The Nasdaq is currently up 6 points but was as low as down 37 points before rebounding. The recovery in stocks is pressuring bonds and preventing much of an improvement in this morning's mortgage rates. The bond market is currently unchanged from yesterday's close, which should keep this morning's mortgage rates at yesterday's levels.

Today's only monthly economic data was July's Goods and Services Trade Balance report.

It showed that the U.S. trade deficit rose to $62.2 billion last month when it was expected to reveal a deficit of approximately $58.0 billion. Fortunately though, this data is not considered to be of high importance to the markets.

The Labor Department released weekly unemployment figures this morning, saying that 445,000 new claims were filed. This was a drop of 6,000, which was very close to forecasts and has not had an impact on the markets or mortgage rates.

Tomorrow morning brings us the release of three pieces of relevant data. The first is the release of August's Retail Sales report. It will give us a measurement of consumer spending, which is very important to the markets because consumer spending makes up two-thirds of the U.S. economy. Current forecasts are calling for a 0.3% increase in sales. If we see a higher level of spending than what is forecasted, the bond market will most likely fall and mortgage rates will rise. However, a weaker than expected reading could push bond prices higher and mortgage rates lower tomorrow morning.

The second important piece of data is the release of August's Producer Price Index (PPI). This report will give us a very importa nt measurement of inflationary pressures at the producer level of the economy. There are two readings that analysts follow in this release. They are the overall index and the core data reading. The core data is the more important of the two because it excludes more volatile food and energy prices. Analysts are currently calling for a 0.5% decline in the overall index, and a rise of 0.2% in the core data. Stronger than expected readings could fuel inflation concerns in the bond market and lead to an increase in mortgage rates Friday morning.

The last report of the week comes from the University of Michigan late tomorrow morning. Their consumer sentiment index will give us an indication of consumer confidence, which hints at consumers' willingness to spend. If confidence is rising, consumers are more apt to make large purchases. But, if they are growing more concerned of their personal financial situations, they probably will delay making that large purchase. This influences future consumer spending data and can impact the financial markets. It is expected to show a reading of 64.0.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now... This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.

With the announcement of the feds taking conservatorship of both fannie and freddie mac, what will happen with mortgage rates in the coming weeks. Some say they will drop to historic lows of 5.0%. How will this affect all of us and is it time to buy into the housing market, seems like it is and with rates predicted to drop like that it would only make sense. We will be watching the markets closely this week as monday will be a test. But for today and the comming 60 days analysts are saying FLOAT don't lock.

 

 

This week brings us the release of four pieces of economic data, with three of them likely to affect mortgage rates. There is no relevant data scheduled for release until Thursday and the most important reports are all scheduled for release Friday. Therefore, look for the biggest changes to rates the latter part of the week.

The first report of the week is not considered to be of high importance. July's Goods and Services Trade Balance data will be posted Thursday morning, giving us the size of the U.S. trade deficit. It is expected to show a deficit of approximately $58.0 billion, which would be an increase from June's $56.8 billion. However, I would consider this the least important of this week's releases, meaning it will likely have little impact on bond trading or mortgage rates.

Also worth noting is the 10-year Treasury Note auction Thursday. It is fairly common to see some weakness in bonds before these sales as investors prepare for them. But, if the sales are met with a decent demand from investors, those losses are normally recovered after the results are announced. The results will be posted at 1:00 pm ET Thursday. If demand was strong, particularly from international investors, we should see mortgage rates improve Thursday afternoon.





Friday brings us the release of three pieces of relevant data. The first is the release of August's Retail Sales report. It will give us a measurement of consumer spending, which is very important to the markets because consumer spending makes up two-thirds of the U.S. economy. Current forecasts are calling for a 0.1% increase in sales. If we see a higher level of spending than is forecasted, the bond market will most likely fall and mortgage rates will rise. However, a weaker than expected reading could push bond prices higher and mortgage rates lower Friday.

The second important piece of data Friday morning is the release of August's Producer Price Index (PPI). This report will give us a very important measurement of inflationary pressures at the producer level of the economy. There are two readings that analysts follow in this release. They are the overall index and the core data reading. The core data is the more important of the two because it excludes more volatile food and energy prices. Analysts are currently calling for a 0.3% decline in the overall index, and a rise of 0.2% in the core data. Stronger than expected readings could fuel inflation concerns in the bond market and lead to an increase in mortgage rates Friday morning.





The last report of the week comes from the University of Michigan. Their consumer sentiment index will give us an indication of consumer confidence, which hints at consumers' willingness to spend. If confidence is rising, consumers are more apt to make large purchases. But, if they are growing more concerned of their personal financial si tuations, they probably will delay making that large purchase. This influences future consumer spending data and can impact the financial markets. It is expected to show a reading of 63.9.

Overall, the latter part of the week will likely be pretty active for the bond market and mortgage rates. Friday's Retail Sales and PPI reports are the week's most important and make Friday the biggest day of the week. If we see weaker than expected readings in that data, we should see mortgage rates move lower for the week. However, stronger than expected readings will likely drive bond prices lower and mortgage rates higher.

I am holding the float recommendations for now, but could change if there is a lackluster interest in the 10-year auction or if Friday's data shows stronger than expected results. We may also see the stock markets significantly influence bond trading, so look for sizable movement in the major indexes to also lead to a possible change in recommendations. This weekend's news about the Fed taking control of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac will likely drive their stock prices lower and could affect the broader markets. That may start the week off with lower mortgage rates.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Float if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now... This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.